Flu Surge Alert: Unpacking the Spike in Influenza and Pneumonia in Germany

Through the first three quarters of 2024, influenza and pneumonia seem significantly elevated compared to 2020 for all age groups in German hospitalizations. The total case count for both conditions is 43% higher in 2024.

Influenza & Pneumonia Cases

The ICD Codes that make up the dataset are as follows:

ICD Code and Code Description

J09 Influenza due to identified zoonotic or pandemic influenza virus

J10 Influenza due to identified seasonal influenza virus

J11 Influenza, virus not identified

J12 Viral pneumonia, not elsewhere classified

J13 Pneumonia due to Streptococcus pneumoniae

J14 Pneumonia due to Haemophilus influenzae

J15 Bacterial pneumonia, not elsewhere classified

J16 Pneumonia due to other infectious organisms, not elsewhere classified

J18 Pneumonia, organism unspecified

The upward trajectory of hospitalizations due to influenza and pneumonia is most evident in working-age groups. The 16-49-year-old age group experienced an 88 percent increase through three quarters of 2024, while ages 50-74 increased by 35 percent during the same period.

16-49 Age Group

50-74 Age Group

Other conditions that are elevated greater than ten percent include Parkinson's (19%), Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases (13%), and Pneumonitis (11%).

CDC Mortality Categories

U.S. data shows signs of elevated mortality due to the flu. In analyzing CDC FluView data, Mary Pat Campbell notes that although January and February 2025 data is not complete, provisional data shows that flu mortality is rising, exceeding 2017-2018 levels.

The Insurance Collaboration comprehensive blood test panel includes two immune system biomarkers: Vitamin D and CEA. Immune system screening provides an understanding of your body’s ability to fight foreign invaders like bacteria and viruses and internal “invaders” like cancer. Studies have demonstrated that Vitamin D supplementation can lower the risk of respiratory infections. In a 2017 review summarizing 25 randomized trials with more than 11,000 participants, vitamin D supplementation decreased the risk for respiratory infections by 12% overall and by 70% in persons whose vitamin D levels were very low (i.e., less than 10 ng/ml).  It decreased the risk of respiratory infections in persons receiving daily or weekly supplementation, but not in people who received a one-time high dose. (Source: Martineau AR, et al.. BMJ 2017;356)

In case you missed Dr. Kate Hendricks’ webinar on Vitamin D, here is the video to learn more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23KqBGIDp-Y

If you are interested in learning more about our research and want to help our health mission, please contact our team today! Patrick Dooley Mary Pat Campbell Steve Cyboran JR Reyling PE, IMBA Robert Wright Rebecca Richey Kate Hendricks, MD, MPH TM Edward Loniewski